DNA Probability Calculator
DNA Relationship Probability Calculator
A sharper alternative to the standard shared-cM chart
Most online cM calculators only compare your total shared cM against a lookup table. This calculator instead models DNA matching as a genetic point process: the number of shared segments is treated as Poisson-distributed, and segment lengths as exponentially distributed — the standard approximation used in population-genetics research on identity-by-descent (IBD) segments. Adding your largest segment and segment count lets the calculator use real order-statistics math (the distribution of the maximum of many exponential segments) instead of a generic bell curve, giving a noticeably sharper estimate — especially for telling apart relationships like half-sibling, grandparent, and aunt/uncle, which share almost identical total cM.
Estimated Relationship Probabilities
How this estimate was calculated
DNA Academy - Quick Answers
How do I use a centimorgan (cM) calculator?
Simply enter the total centimorgan (cM) value you share with a match (e.g., 876 cM). Our calculator gives you an immediate probability list of relationships. For 876 cM, it might show 60% chance of grandparent, 30% of half-aunt/uncle, etc. This removes the guesswork when you see unfamiliar names in your match list.
What is a good centimorgan threshold for a reliable match?
Matches over 20 cM are generally considered genealogically useful. Matches under 10 cM are often “identical by chance” (IBC) and not from a recent ancestor. According to the ISOGG, we recommend focusing on matches > 50 cM for building your tree, as these are almost always valid. Test our calculator to see the probabilities.
What does "shared DNA segments" mean on my report?
A segment is a continuous stretch of DNA on a specific chromosome. Your total cM is the sum of all segments you share with a match. For example, you might share 120 cM spread across 4 segments (each on different chromosomes). Our calculator uses the total cM to determine relationship probabilities.
Can the calculator predict half-relationships (half-siblings, half-aunts)?
Yes! Our calculator includes half-relationships in its probability list. For example, 1,700 cM might show a 50% chance of grandparent and a 30% chance of half-sibling. The tool uses the latest Shared cM Project data to give you the most accurate probabilities, including half-aunt/uncle and half-first-cousin options. Try our calculator yourself.
