DNA Probability Calculator

DNA Relationship Probability Calculator

A sharper alternative to the standard shared-cM chart

Most online cM calculators only compare your total shared cM against a lookup table. This calculator instead models DNA matching as a genetic point process: the number of shared segments is treated as Poisson-distributed, and segment lengths as exponentially distributed — the standard approximation used in population-genetics research on identity-by-descent (IBD) segments. Adding your largest segment and segment count lets the calculator use real order-statistics math (the distribution of the maximum of many exponential segments) instead of a generic bell curve, giving a noticeably sharper estimate — especially for telling apart relationships like half-sibling, grandparent, and aunt/uncle, which share almost identical total cM.

Please enter a valid total shared cM value.
About this model: Segment count is modeled as Poisson-distributed and segment lengths as exponentially distributed, calibrated per relationship category from published average total-cM figures. The largest segment is evaluated using the distribution of the maximum of N exponential variables (order statistics) rather than an arbitrary bell curve. This is a genuine improvement over simple cM lookup tables, but it is still a simplified model: it does not separately account for IBD2 sharing (e.g. in full siblings), multiple shared ancestral lines (endogamy or pedigree collapse), or the sex-specific recombination differences on the X chromosome. Relationship categories with the same expected relatedness (e.g. half-sibling, grandparent/grandchild, and aunt/uncle) will always overlap heavily — no amount of segment data fully separates them. Always confirm a specific relationship using family trees, ages, shared matches, and documentary research alongside DNA evidence.