DNA Probability Calculator

DNA Relationship Probability Calculator

A sharper alternative to the standard shared-cM chart

Most online cM calculators only compare your total shared cM against a lookup table. This calculator instead models DNA matching as a genetic point process: the number of shared segments is treated as Poisson-distributed, and segment lengths as exponentially distributed — the standard approximation used in population-genetics research on identity-by-descent (IBD) segments. Adding your largest segment and segment count lets the calculator use real order-statistics math (the distribution of the maximum of many exponential segments) instead of a generic bell curve, giving a noticeably sharper estimate — especially for telling apart relationships like half-sibling, grandparent, and aunt/uncle, which share almost identical total cM.

Please enter a valid total shared cM value.
About this model: Segment count is modeled as Poisson-distributed and segment lengths as exponentially distributed, calibrated per relationship category from published average total-cM figures. The largest segment is evaluated using the distribution of the maximum of N exponential variables (order statistics) rather than an arbitrary bell curve. This is a genuine improvement over simple cM lookup tables, but it is still a simplified model: it does not separately account for IBD2 sharing (e.g. in full siblings), multiple shared ancestral lines (endogamy or pedigree collapse), or the sex-specific recombination differences on the X chromosome. Relationship categories with the same expected relatedness (e.g. half-sibling, grandparent/grandchild, and aunt/uncle) will always overlap heavily — no amount of segment data fully separates them. Always confirm a specific relationship using family trees, ages, shared matches, and documentary research alongside DNA evidence.

DNA Academy - Quick Answers

Simply enter the total centimorgan (cM) value you share with a match (e.g., 876 cM). Our calculator gives you an immediate probability list of relationships. For 876 cM, it might show 60% chance of grandparent, 30% of half-aunt/uncle, etc. This removes the guesswork when you see unfamiliar names in your match list.

Matches over 20 cM are generally considered genealogically useful. Matches under 10 cM are often “identical by chance” (IBC) and not from a recent ancestor. According to the ISOGG, we recommend focusing on matches > 50 cM for building your tree, as these are almost always valid. Test our calculator to see the probabilities.

A segment is a continuous stretch of DNA on a specific chromosome. Your total cM is the sum of all segments you share with a match. For example, you might share 120 cM spread across 4 segments (each on different chromosomes). Our calculator uses the total cM to determine relationship probabilities.

Yes! Our calculator includes half-relationships in its probability list. For example, 1,700 cM might show a 50% chance of grandparent and a 30% chance of half-sibling. The tool uses the latest Shared cM Project data to give you the most accurate probabilities, including half-aunt/uncle and half-first-cousin options. Try our calculator yourself.